Greater Vancouver
2
MLS®
resale Market Steady
MLS®
resale market conditions are
forecast to be in balanced territory in
most areas of the Greater Vancouver
region in 2012 and 2013. During
the past year, market conditions
moderated from sellers’ market
conditions for many municipalities in
the first quarter of 2011 to balanced
market conditions for most in the
first quarter of 2012. While a few
municipalities such as the Tri-Cities
and North Vancouver have remained
in sellers’ market conditions, others
such as Burnaby, Vancouver City,
and West Vancouver have moved to
balanced market conditions in the
first quarter of this year. Richmond
moved from sellers’ market conditions
in the first quarter of 2011 to buyers’
market conditions in first quarter of
2012.
Expectations are for a much smaller
increase in the number of MLS®
sales
and a steady level of new listings,
which will contribute to a flatter
trend for average MLS®
prices in the
Greater Vancouver region during the
remainder of 2012 and 2013. In terms
of MLS®
sales, there has been a 22
per cent decline in the first quarter
of 2012 compared to a year ago. The
decrease in MLS®
sales was recorded
in all market segments – singledetached homes, row homes, and
condominium apartments. Changes in
market share suggests that homebuyer
activity for single-detached homes
has shifted from Vancouver West,
Richmond, and West Vancouver, to
other areas including Vancouver
East, North Vancouver, Burnaby,
and Coquitlam. The geographical
distribution of condominium
apartment sales, however, has shown
little change in the first quarter of
2012 compared to the same period
a year ago. As well, little geographical
change was observed for townhouse
sales.
In terms of price, there was a
one per cent decrease in average
MLS®
price in first quarter of 2012
compared to the same period last
year. Price trends for both singledetached homes and condominium
apartments have been fairly flat during
this period. Single-detached homes in
Greater Vancouver recorded slightly
stronger growth in average MLS®
prices than median MLS®
prices, which
was largely a result of more very highend, luxury home sales (i.e. homes
that sold for at least $5 million) in the
first quarter of 2012 compared to the
same period a year ago. These sales
took place mainly in Vancouver West
and West Vancouver. For condominium
apartments, both average and median
MLS®
prices follow a similar path – a
year-over-year decline of one per cent
in the first quarter of 2012. Areas such
as Vancouver West and Richmond
experienced year-over-year declines
in average and median MLS®
prices for
condominium apartments.
Stable home prices during the
forecast period are expected to
encourage some home purchases as
potential homebuyers could see it
as an opportunity to either trade up
from a current residence or enter
homeownership as a first time home
buyer. This will keep the number
of MLS®
sales on par with last year,
with a 2.8 per cent dip expected in
2012 and a 7.8 per cent increase
projected for 2013. Still, the potential
for mortgage rate increases in 2013
may prompt some homebuyer caution
and keep overall market conditions in
balanced territory over the forecast
period in spite of a strong local
job market and population growth.
Average MLS®
prices in the Greater
Vancouver region are projected to
decline 1.5 per cent in 2012 and then
to increase 4.6 per cent in 2013
Greater Vancouver(2) MLS® Resale Market Steady
MLS® resale market conditions are forecast to be in balanced territory in most areas of the Greater Vancouver region in 2012 and 2013. During the past year, market conditions moderated from sellers’ market conditions for many municipalities in the first quarter of 2011 to balanced market conditions for most in the first quarter of 2012. While a few municipalities such as the Tri-Cities and North Vancouver have remained in sellers’ market conditions, others such as Burnaby, Vancouver City, and West Vancouver have moved to balanced market conditions in the first quarter of this year. Richmond moved from sellers’ market conditions in the first quarter of 2011 to buyers’ market conditions in first quarter of 2012.
Expectations are for a much smaller increase in the number of MLS® sales and a steady level of new listings, which will contribute to a flatter trend for average MLS® prices in the Greater Vancouver region during the remainder of 2012 and 2013. In terms of MLS® sales, there has been a 22 per cent decline in the first quarter of 2012 compared to a year ago. The decrease in MLS® sales was recorded in all market segments – singledetached homes, row homes, and condominium apartments. Changes in market share suggests that homebuyer activity for single-detached homes has shifted from Vancouver West, Richmond, and West Vancouver, to other areas including Vancouver East, North Vancouver, Burnaby, and Coquitlam. The geographical distribution of condominium apartment sales, however, has shown little change in the first quarter of 2012 compared to the same period a year ago. As well, little geographical change was observed for townhouse sales.
In terms of price, there was a one per cent decrease in average MLS® price in first quarter of 2012 compared to the same period last year. Price trends for both singledetached homes and condominium apartments have been fairly flat during this period. Single-detached homes in Greater Vancouver recorded slightly stronger growth in average MLS®prices than median MLS® prices, which was largely a result of more very highend, luxury home sales (i.e. homes that sold for at least $5 million) in the first quarter of 2012 compared to the same period a year ago. These sales took place mainly in Vancouver West and West Vancouver. For condominium apartments, both average and median MLS® prices follow a similar path – a year-over-year decline of one per cent in the first quarter of 2012. Areas such as Vancouver West and Richmond experienced year-over-year declines in average and median MLS® prices for condominium apartments.
Stable home prices during the forecast period are expected to encourage some home purchases as potential homebuyers could see it as an opportunity to either trade up from a current residence or enter homeownership as a first time home buyer. This will keep the number of MLS® sales on par with last year, with a 2.8 per cent dip expected in 2012 and a 7.8 per cent increase projected for 2013. Still, the potential for mortgage rate increases in 2013 may prompt some homebuyer caution and keep overall market conditions in balanced territory over the forecast period in spite of a strong local job market and population growth. Average MLS® prices in the Greater Vancouver region are projected to decline 1.5 per cent in 2012 and then to increase 4.6 per cent in 2013
(2) This section deals with the resale market in the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver area. This area does not include Surrey, Langley, White Rock, or North Delta. Please see the Fraser Valley resale section for commentary on these communities as well as the Abbotsford CMA.