Greater Vancouver MLS® Resale Market Steady

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MLS® resale market conditions are forecast to be in balanced territory in most areas of the Greater Vancouver region in 2012 and 2013. During the past year, market conditions moderated from sellers’ market conditions for many municipalities in the first quarter of 2011 to balanced market conditions for most in the first quarter of 2012. While a few municipalities such as the Tri-Cities and North Vancouver have remained in sellers’ market conditions, others such as Burnaby, Vancouver City, and West Vancouver have moved to balanced market conditions in the first quarter of this year. Richmond moved from sellers’ market conditions in the first quarter of 2011 to buyers’ market conditions in first quarter of 2012.

Expectations are for a much smaller increase in the number of MLS® sales and a steady level of new listings, which will contribute to a flatter trend for average MLS® prices in the Greater Vancouver region during the remainder of 2012 and 2013. In terms of MLS® sales, there has been a 22 per cent decline in the first quarter of 2012 compared to a year ago. The decrease in MLS® sales was recorded in all market segments – singledetached homes, row homes, and condominium apartments. Changes in market share suggests that homebuyer activity for single-detached homes has shifted from Vancouver West, Richmond, and West Vancouver, to other areas including Vancouver East, North Vancouver, Burnaby, and Coquitlam. The geographical distribution of condominium apartment sales, however, has shown little change in the first quarter of 2012 compared to the same period a year ago. As well, little geographical change was observed for townhouse sales.

In terms of price, there was a one per cent decrease in average MLS® price in first quarter of 2012 compared to the same period last year. Price trends for both singledetached homes and condominium apartments have been fairly flat during this period. Single-detached homes in Greater Vancouver recorded slightly stronger growth in average MLS®prices than median MLS® prices, which was largely a result of more very highend, luxury home sales (i.e. homes that sold for at least $5 million) in the first quarter of 2012 compared to the same period a year ago. These sales took place mainly in Vancouver West and West Vancouver. For condominium apartments, both average and median MLS® prices follow a similar path – a year-over-year decline of one per cent in the first quarter of 2012. Areas such as Vancouver West and Richmond experienced year-over-year declines in average and median MLS® prices for condominium apartments.

Stable home prices during the forecast period are expected to encourage some home purchases as potential homebuyers could see it as an opportunity to either trade up from a current residence or enter homeownership as a first time home buyer. This will keep the number of MLS® sales on par with last year, with a 2.8 per cent dip expected in 2012 and a 7.8 per cent increase projected for 2013. Still, the potential for mortgage rate increases in 2013 may prompt some homebuyer caution and keep overall market conditions in balanced territory over the forecast period in spite of a strong local job market and population growth. Average MLS® prices in the Greater Vancouver region are projected to decline 1.5 per cent in 2012 and then to increase 4.6 per cent in 2013